Methodology
How Amman Water Intelligence measures where development pressure and water constraints overlap across Greater Amman.
Eight standardized pilot locations
The project compares eight standardized Greater Amman pilot locations using identical 2 km study zones, so that development-pressure and water-risk indicators are measured on the same spatial basis at every site.
Three inputs, measured independently
Each pilot location is scored on three independent components before being combined into a single integrated measure.
Historical Development Pressure
Measures relative historical development pressure across the standardized study zones.
Projected Development Pressure
Measures projected development pressure across the 2020–2030 study period.
Underlying Water Risk
Represents the broader water-stress context surrounding each study location.
Combining pressure and risk into one score
Equal weighting is used as a transparent starting rule. It does not claim that the three factors have identical real-world causal importance — it is a neutral baseline that the sensitivity tests below then stress-test.
Testing whether the ranking depends on one weighting choice
The project tests five weighting scenarios to check whether the priority ranking is an artifact of the equal-weighting rule, or holds up under different assumptions about relative importance.
Shafa Badran and Abu Nseir remain the stable top-two priorities across all tested weighting scenarios.
What the Integrated Exposure Score does — and does not — tell you
A higher Integrated Exposure Score means development pressure and water constraints overlap more strongly, relative to the other pilot areas.
- The neighborhood is unsafe.
- It will necessarily experience more water outages.
- It has poor water quality.
- It is a bad real-estate investment.
What this model does not do
Does not predict household water outages.
Does not measure building-level water pressure.
Does not measure water quality.
Does not replace site-level engineering or utility due diligence.
Is not an investment recommendation.